因運(yùn)輸和物流激增、燃料和石油價(jià)格變貴、勞動(dòng)力成本增加等綜合因素，全球茶葉出口價(jià)格正在小幅上漲。

Globally tea export prices are edging upward, driven by combined spikes in transportation and logistics, more costly fuel and petroleum-derived fertilizer, and increased labor expense.

從產(chǎn)茶區(qū)域來看，茶葉價(jià)格趨勢(shì)喜憂參半。印度茶葉產(chǎn)量占到全球的20%。2021年9月份，印度茶葉出口量下降10%，但出口金額上漲。印度報(bào)告稱，在疫情爆發(fā)的一年里，印度本土茶葉價(jià)格下跌， 2021年上半年價(jià)格上漲。11月，加爾各答的紅碎茶拍賣價(jià)格降至2.78美元/公斤，2020 年同期為2.97美元/公斤。

Regionally the trend is mixed. Exports through September are down 10% by volume but up in value in India, which produces 20% of the world’s tea. India reports falling domestic prices following a pandemic year that boosted prices through the first half of 2021. In November, auction prices for CTC in Kolkata fell to an average of $2.78 (INRs209) per kilo, down from $2.97 during the same period in 2020. 

相比之下，根據(jù)東非茶葉貿(mào)易協(xié)會(huì) (EATTA) 的數(shù)據(jù)，上周肯尼亞的茶葉拍賣價(jià)格為2.40美元/公斤，為五年來最高紀(jì)錄。肯尼亞的茶葉產(chǎn)量總體下降了10%。

In contrast, last week Kenya auctioned tea at a five-year high of $2.40 (KSH271) per kilo, according to the East African Tea Traders Association (EATTA). Production there is also down 10% overall.

產(chǎn)量下降是茶葉貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)正逐漸從供過于求轉(zhuǎn)向供不應(yīng)求的早期跡象。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫 (EIU) 預(yù)測(cè)全球茶葉產(chǎn)量將小幅增加至 627.9 萬噸（近63 億公斤），而消費(fèi)量將增加至 653.8 萬噸，造成 26萬噸的赤字。到 2022年，這一赤字將增加到 36.3萬噸。

Declines in production are an early sign that the economics of the tea trade is gradually shifting from oversupply to scarcity. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts output globally will increase slightly to 6.279 million metric tons (6.3 billion kilos) while consumption rises to 6.538 million metric tons, creating a deficit of 260,000 metric tons. That deficit will increase to 363,000 metric tons in 2022.

低檔茶仍供不應(yīng)求，而劣質(zhì)茶需求疲軟。

There remains a glut of low-grade tea, but demand for inferior tea is slack. 

根據(jù)《貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)》的數(shù)據(jù)，在全球范圍內(nèi)，茶葉價(jià)格上漲了7.32%。其中，中國茶葉價(jià)格自 2021年初以來每公斤上漲了0.21美元。這家分析公司采用宏觀模型和分析師的預(yù)期，基于基準(zhǔn)差價(jià)合約，預(yù)測(cè) 2022 年茶葉的交易價(jià)格將達(dá)到每公斤 3.30 美元。差價(jià)合約 (CFD) 是買賣雙方之間的協(xié)議，規(guī)定買方將向賣方支付貨品的當(dāng)前價(jià)值與其在合同時(shí)的價(jià)值之間的差額（如果差額為負(fù)，則由賣方支付）。《貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)》預(yù)測(cè)，到2022年底，茶葉平均價(jià)格可能達(dá)到4.10美元/公斤。

Globally, tea prices, led by China, have increased by $0.21 per kilo since the beginning of 2021, up 7.32% according to Trading Economics. The analytics firm, using macro models and analyst expectations, based on benchmark CFDs, predicts tea will trade at $3.30 per kilo in 2022. A contract for difference (CFD) is an agreement between a buyer and seller stipulating that the buyer will pay the seller the difference between the current value of an asset and its value at contract time (if the difference is negative, then the seller pays instead). Trading Economics forecasts tea prices could reach an average of $4.10 per kilo by year-end. 

如果這成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，這將是茶葉在過去十年中第2次超過每公斤 4 美元的門檻。更有可能的是，價(jià)格上漲將引發(fā)產(chǎn)量增加。印度尼西亞貿(mào)易委員會(huì)使用聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究計(jì)算了產(chǎn)量增加對(duì)價(jià)格的影響。

If that comes to pass it will be only the second time tea has crossed the $4 per kilo threshold in the past decade. More likely is that rising prices will trigger increases in production. A study by the Indonesian Board of Trade using United Nations FAO data calculated the impact of increased production on prices.

“如果對(duì)最近的茶葉高價(jià)格反應(yīng)過度，比如產(chǎn)量增加5%，結(jié)果可能會(huì)大不相同……，清算價(jià)格將比2.54美元/公斤的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格降低 17%。”印度尼西亞貿(mào)易委員會(huì)主席 Iwan Cahyo Suryadi 寫到。

“If there is an overreaction to recent high prices which, for example, would result in a 5% increase in production, the results can be quite different…. the clearing price would be 17% less than the baseline price at $2.54 per kg,” writes Iwan Cahyo Suryadi, Chairperson, Board of Commissioners Indonesia Board of Trade.

“如果對(duì)當(dāng)前高價(jià)格的反應(yīng)更加強(qiáng)烈，導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量比基準(zhǔn)增加10%，那么價(jià)格可能會(huì)下降 38%。” Suryadi說。

“If the reaction to the current high prices is even stronger, resulting in a 10% increase in production over the baseline increase, then prices could be 38% lower,” according to Suryadi.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫(EIU)估計(jì)茶葉價(jià)格將上漲至接近長期平均水平，“我們預(yù)計(jì)，因?yàn)楣┎粦?yīng)求，加上一些市場(chǎng)（特別是歐洲和北美）的茶葉需求逐漸復(fù)蘇，2021年剩余時(shí)間茶葉價(jià)格會(huì)穩(wěn)中有升。我們估計(jì)2021年全年平均價(jià)格為2.69美元/公斤，比 2020 年下降 0.5%。2022年茶葉均價(jià)將上漲 8.7%，至2.92 美元/公斤。”

EIU estimates a price increase that is close to the long-term average, “we expect concerns about supply and a gradual recovery in demand in some markets (particularly in Europe and North America) to provide some support to prices in the remainder of 2021. We estimate that prices will average $2.69 per kilo in full-year 2021, representing a 0.5% decline from 2020. We are forecasting an 8.7% increase in average prices in 2022, to $2.92 per kilo.”

數(shù)據(jù)來自聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織價(jià)格監(jiān)測(cè)和分析工具

茶葉洞察：茶葉拍賣的長期平均價(jià)格為2.85美元/公斤。優(yōu)質(zhì)茶更有可能以更高的價(jià)格直接銷售。2020 年，全球茶葉出口總額71 億美元，自 2016 年以來下降了 4.3%。根據(jù) World's Top Exports 網(wǎng)站的數(shù)據(jù)，從 2019 年到 2020 年，全球茶葉出口額同比下降了 8.6%。中國茶葉（主要是綠茶）占全球茶葉出口額的 29%，其次是肯尼亞，市場(chǎng)份額為 16%（主要是紅茶），斯里蘭卡占比10%，印度占比是9.7%。

Biz Insight – The long-term average price of commodity tea at auction is $2.85 per kilo. Quality tea is more likely to be sold direct and at significantly higher prices. Sales of tea exported by all countries totaled $7.1 billion in 2020, down 4.3% by value since 2016. Year-over-year the value worldwide of tea exports declined an average of 8.6% from 2019 to 2020, according to the website World’s Top Exports. China (dominant in green tea) accounts for 29% of global sales of tea exports by value followed by Kenya with a 16% market share (dominant in black tea), Sri Lanka 10%, and India 9.7% both have about a 10% share.

作者：Dan Bolton

翻譯：于英杰

來源：中國茶葉流通協(xié)會(huì)